Manufacturing PMI® at 47.8%

February 2024 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

New Orders; Backlogs Contracting
Production; Employment Contracting
Supplier Deliveries Slowing
Raw Materials Inventories Contracting; Customers’ Inventories Too Low
Prices Increasing; Exports and Imports Growing

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in February for the 16th consecutive month following one month of “unchanged” status (a PMI® reading of 50 percent) and 28 months of growth prior to that, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.8 percent in February, down 1.3 percentage points from the 49.1 percent recorded in January. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 46th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index moved back into contraction territory at 49.2 percent, 3.3 percentage points lower than the 52.5 percent recorded in January. The February reading of the Production Index (48.4 percent) is 2 percentage points lower than January’s figure of 50.4 percent. The Prices Index registered 52.5 percent, down 0.4 percentage point compared to the reading of 52.9 percent in January. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 46.3 percent, 1.6 percentage points higher than the 44.7 percent recorded in January. The Employment Index registered 45.9 percent, down 1.2 percentage points from January’s figure of 47.1 percent.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index figure of 50.1 percent is 1 percentage point higher than the 49.1 percent recorded in January. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® Report On Business® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.) The Inventories Index decreased 0.9 percentage point to 45.3 percent from January’s reading of 46.2 percent.

“The New Export Orders Index reading of 51.6 percent is 6.4 percentage points higher than January’s figure of 45.2 percent. The Imports Index continued in expansion territory, registering 53 percent, 2.9 percentage points higher than the 50.1 percent reported in January. Both indexes reported their highest readings since July 2022, when the New Export Orders Index registered 52.6 percent and the Imports Index 54.4 percent.”

Fiore continues, “The U.S. manufacturing sector continued to contract (and at a faster rate compared to January), with demand slowing, output easing and inputs remaining accommodative. Demand moderated, with the (1) New Orders Index back in contraction as seasonal headwinds were too strong to overcome, (2) New Export Orders Index returned to expansion and (3) Backlog of Orders Index improving but still in moderate contraction territory. The Customers’ Inventories Index contracted for the third consecutive month, remaining accommodative for future production. Output (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) dropped, with a combined 3.2-percentage point downward impact on the Manufacturing PMI® calculation. Panelists’ companies maintained their production levels month over month, but that growth could not outpace seasonal factors. Head-count reductions continued in February, with notable layoff activity noted. Inputs — defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports — continued to accommodate future demand growth but again showed signs of stiffening. The Supplier Deliveries Index improved again, moving into ‘slower’ territory, and the Inventories Index slid back due to inability for growth consistent with seasonal factors, remaining in moderate contraction territory. The Prices Index remained in moderate expansion (or ‘increasing’) territory as commodity driven costs continue to oscillate.

“Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, three (Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; and Transportation Equipment) registered growth in February. The first two are “foundational” industries, meaning those that provide products and components for other manufacturing industries.

“Demand is at the early stages of recovery, and production execution is relatively stable compared to January, as panelists’ companies begin to prepare for expansion. Suppliers continue to have capacity but are showing signs of struggling, due in part to their raw material supply chains. Forty percent of manufacturing gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in February, down from 62 percent in January. More importantly, the share of sector GDP registering a composite PMI® calculation at or below 45 percent — a good barometer of overall manufacturing weakness — was 1 percent in February, compared to 27 percent in January and 48 percent in December. Among the top six industries by contribution to manufacturing GDP in February, none had a PMI® at or below 45 percent, compared to two in the previous month,” says Fiore.

The eight manufacturing industries reporting growth in February — in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Transportation Equipment. The seven industries reporting contraction in February — in the following order — are: Furniture & Related Products; Machinery; Wood Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Paper Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

  • “Currently seeing increasing sales in our business. Most delivery dates are in the second quarter of 2024.” [Chemical Products]
  • “The first quarter will be slower due to some customer order changes, but we are expecting the rest of 2024 to be strong. We may increase our growth projections.” [Transportation Equipment]
  • “Typical first quarter volume drops from fourth quarter high volumes. Additional distribution has allowed us to maintain consistent production shifts.” [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]
  • “Customer softness continues in China, Japan and Europe.” [Computer & Electronic Products]
  • “Demand has finally picked up, with customer orders more closely resembling typical January and February levels. January was up 22 percent compared to December; February up 26 percent compared to January.” [Machinery]
  • “Customer orders are steady, neither up nor down compared to last month. This steady state is what we budgeted and forecast. We are forecasting business to increase 2 percent to 4 percent over the next couple of months.” [Fabricated Metal Products]
  • “Business outlook overall is stable. Working through customer backlog with some raw material lead times improving.” [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]
  • “We reflected on 2023 for maybe a minute and turned the page forward to 2024. Weather in January caused several operations to be idle, and shipments were affected.” [Nonmetallic Mineral Products]
  • “The month seems to be getting stronger with each passing day and week. Lots of market volatility —pricing flat to downward. It will be interesting to see how the last days of the month play out, as indications seem to be all over the place.” [Primary Metals]
  • “We are experiencing increased sales, which is putting pressure on the plant and assembly to meet new customer demand.” [Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components]

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
February 2024

Index Series Index Feb Series Index Jan Percentage Point Change Direction Rate of Change Trend* (Months)
Manufacturing PMI® 47.8 49.1 -1.3 Contracting Faster 16
New Orders 49.2 52.5 -3.3 Contracting From Growing 1
Production 48.4 50.4 -2.0 Contracting From Growing 1
Employment 45.9 47.1 -1.2 Contracting Faster 5
Supplier Deliveries 50.1 49.1 +1.0 Slowing From Faster 1
Inventories 45.3 46.2 -0.9 Contracting Faster 13
Customers’ Inventories 45.8 43.7 +2.1 Too Low Slower 3
Prices 52.5 52.9 -0.4 Increasing Slower 2
Backlog of Orders 46.3 44.7 +1.6 Contracting Slower 17
New Export Orders 51.6 45.2 +6.4 Growing From Contracting 1
Imports 53.0 50.1 +2.9 Growing Faster 2
OVERALL ECONOMY Growing Slower 46
Manufacturing Sector Contracting Faster 16
Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE AND IN SHORT SUPPLY


Commodities Up in Price


Aluminum* (3); Electrical Components; Maintenance, Repair, and Operations (MRO) Supplies; Ocean Freight (2); Plastic Resins (2); Polyethylene; Polypropylene (5); Steel (8); Steel — Carbon (2); Steel — Hot Rolled (4); and Steel Products (3).


Commodities Down in Price


Aluminum* (9); Corrugated Boxes (7); Natural Gas (3); Packaging Materials (3); Pallets; Steel; and Steel Products.


Commodities in Short Supply


Coatings and Adhesives; Electrical Equipment; Electrical Components (41); Electronic Assemblies; and Electronic Components (39).

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

*Indicates both up and down in price.


FEBRUARY 2024 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES


Manufacturing PMI®

The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted in February, as the Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.8 percent, down 1.3 percentage points compared to January’s reading of 49.1 percent. “This is the 16th consecutive month of contraction. Four out of five subindexes that directly factor into the Manufacturing PMI® are in contraction territory, up from three in January. The New Orders Index dropped back into contraction territory after one month in expansion. Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, three (Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; and Transportation Equipment) registered growth in February,” says Fiore. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing sector is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the February Manufacturing PMI® indicates the overall economy grew for the 46th straight month after one month of contraction (April 2020). “The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the February reading (47.8 percent) corresponds to a change of plus-1.5 percent in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis,” says Fiore.

THE LAST 12 MONTHS


Month
Manufacturing PMI®
Feb 2024 47.8
Jan 2024 49.1
Dec 2023 47.1
Nov 2023 46.6
Oct 2023 46.9
Sep 2023 48.6
Month
Manufacturing PMI®
Aug 2023 47.6
Jul 2023 46.5
Jun 2023 46.4
May 2023 46.6
Apr 2023 47.0
Mar 2023 46.5
47.2
49.1
46.4

New Orders

ISM®’s New Orders Index contracted for the 18th time in 20 months in February, registering 49.2 percent, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points compared to January’s reading of 52.5 percent. The New Orders Index contracted in July 2022, registered 50.1 percent in August 2022 and had been in contraction until January. “Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, four (Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; and Computer & Electronic Products) reported increased new orders. Panelists’ comments reflected sentiment about improving demand, a trend that began in December 2023. Indications of order softness were at the lowest level since April 2023,” says Fiore. A New Orders Index above 52.3 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

The 11 manufacturing industries that reported growth in new orders in February — in the following order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Wood Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Computer & Electronic Products. The four industries reporting a decline in new orders in February are: Furniture & Related Products; Textile Mills; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Machinery.

New Orders % Higher % Same % Lower Net Index
Feb 2024 24.4 58.2 17.4 +7.0 49.2
Jan 2024 20.2 56.3 23.5 -3.3 52.5
Dec 2023 15.5 57.5 27.0 -11.5 47.0
Nov 2023 19.5 53.0 27.5 -8.0 47.8

Production

The Production Index moved back into contraction territory in February, registering 48.4 percent, 2 percentage points lower than the January reading of 50.4 percent. The Production Index has been in contraction in 11 of the last 15 months. Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, two (Fabricated Metal Products; and Chemical Products) reported increased production. More importantly, both of those industries are “foundational,” providing products across the manufacturing sector. “Panelists’ companies essentially maintained output levels from January, but due to seasonality adjustments, expansion wasn’t fast enough to avoid a subindex reading in contraction territory. Overall, production rates have been essentially stable since July 2023, with slight month-over-month declines consistent with reductions in demand and backlog,” says Fiore. An index above 52.2 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures.

The seven industries reporting growth in production during the month of February, in order, are: Paper Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; and Chemical Products. The five industries reporting a decrease in production in February are: Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. Six industries reported no change in production in February compared to January.

Production % Higher % Same % Lower Net Index
Feb 2024 18.0 64.8 17.2 +0.8 48.4
Jan 2024 18.4 57.8 23.8 -5.4 50.4
Dec 2023 15.5 61.5 23.0 -7.5 49.9
Nov 2023 18.4 62.1 19.5 -1.1 48.8

Employment

ISM®’s Employment Index registered 45.9 percent in February, 1.2 percentage points lower than the January reading of 47.1 percent. “The index indicated employment contracted for the fifth month in a row (and at a faster rate in February) after one month of expansion and three months of contraction before that. Of the six big manufacturing sectors, only Transportation Equipment expanded employment in February. Many Business Survey Committee respondents’ companies are continuing to reduce head counts using layoffs (which account for 50 percent of reduction activity), attrition and hiring freezes. Panelists’ comments in February were equally split between their companies adding and reducing head counts. This approximately 1-to-1 ratio has been consistent since October 2023,” says Fiore. An Employment Index above 50.3 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Of 18 manufacturing industries, four reported employment growth in February: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Primary Metals; and Transportation Equipment. The 10 industries reporting a decrease in employment in February, in the following order, are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Paper Products; Wood Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Furniture & Related Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; and Chemical Products.

Employment % Higher % Same % Lower Net Index
Feb 2024 10.9 70.5 18.6 -7.7 45.9
Jan 2024 11.0 70.6 18.4 -7.4 47.1
Dec 2023 11.7 70.3 18.0 -6.3 47.5
Nov 2023 9.3 71.3 19.4 -10.1 46.1

Supplier Deliveries*

Delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was slower in February after 16 straight months in “faster” territory for the Supplier Deliveries Index, which registered 50.1 percent, 1 percentage point higher than the 49.1 percent reported in January. After a reading of 52.4 percent in September 2022, the index went into contraction territory in October and had been there until February. “Panelists’ comments continue to indicate that suppliers’ performance is improving; delivery promises appear to be more stable as inputs transition to a more demand-driven environment. For the second month, supplier responsiveness appears to be ‘stiffer,’ meaning some suppliers are struggling to keep up,” says Fiore. A reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries, while a reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

The four manufacturing industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in February are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Transportation Equipment. The five industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in February are: Paper Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. Nine industries reported no change in delivery performance in February compared to January.

Supplier Deliveries % Slower % Same % Faster Net Index
Feb 2024 8.9 82.4 8.7 +0.2 50.1
Jan 2024 9.7 78.7 11.6 -1.9 49.1
Dec 2023 5.2 83.5 11.3 -6.1 47.0
Nov 2023 6.3 79.7 14.0 -7.7 46.2

Inventories

The Inventories Index registered 45.3 percent in February, 0.9 percentage point lower than the 46.2 percent reported in January. “Manufacturing inventories contracted at a slightly faster rate compared to the previous month. Of the six big industries, two (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Fabricated Metal Products) increased manufacturing inventories in February. Overall, panelists’ companies are indicating a willingness to invest in manufacturing inventory to improve on-time deliveries, gain precision in revenue projections and improve customer satisfaction. Something to watch in the coming months: Supply chains catching up to growing demand is a scenario that typically results in manufacturing inventories expanding,” says Fiore. An Inventories Index greater than 44.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

Of 18 manufacturing industries, six reported higher inventories in February, in the following order: Textile Mills; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Fabricated Metal Products. The seven industries reporting lower inventories in February — in the following order — are: Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Paper Products; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Transportation Equipment; and Machinery.

Inventories % Higher % Same % Lower Net Index
Feb 2024 12.7 70.4 16.9 -4.2 45.3
Jan 2024 14.0 63.8 22.2 -8.2 46.2
Dec 2023 11.1 62.8 26.1 -15.0 43.9
Nov 2023 13.8 59.7 26.5 -12.7 44.3

Customers' Inventories*

ISM®’s Customers’ Inventories Index registered 45.8 percent in February, up 2.1 percentage points compared to the 43.7 percent reported in January. “Customers’ inventory levels decreased at a slower rate in February, with the index moving up but still in ‘too low’ territory. Panelists report their companies’ customers continue to have a shortage of their products in inventory, which is considered positive for future new orders and production,” says Fiore.

The three industries reporting customers’ inventories as too high in February are: Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Plastics & Rubber Products. The nine industries reporting customers’ inventories as too low in February, in order, are: Paper Products; Wood Products; Chemical Products; Primary Metals; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.

Customers' Inventories % Reporting % Too High % About Right % Too Low Net Index
Feb 2024 77 10.9 69.7 19.4 -8.5 45.8
Jan 2024 75 10.2 66.9 22.9 -12.7 43.7
Dec 2023 79 13.5 69.2 17.3 -3.8 48.1
Nov 2023 76 16.3 69.0 14.7 +1.6 50.8

Prices*

The ISM® Prices Index registered 52.5 percent, 0.4 percentage point lower compared to the January reading of 52.9 percent, indicating raw materials prices increased in February for the second month in a row after eight consecutive months of decreases. Of the six largest manufacturing industries, three — Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; and Computer & Electronic Products — reported price increases in February. “The Prices Index indicated moderate expansion in the second month of 2024 as new pricing agreements are implemented at panelists’ companies and commodity prices continue to be volatile. Steel, plastics, cement and aluminum all contributed to price growth in February. Eighteen percent of companies reported higher prices, compared to 20 percent in January,” says Fiore. A Prices Index above 52.8 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials.

In February, the 11 industries that reported paying increased prices for raw materials, in order, are: Textile Mills; Printing & Related Support Activities; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Furniture & Related Products; Paper Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The four industries reporting paying decreased prices for raw materials in February are: Primary Metals; Petroleum & Coal Products; Machinery; and Fabricated Metal Products.

Prices % Higher % Same % Lower Net Index
Feb 2024 18.3 68.3 13.4 +4.9 52.5
Jan 2024 19.5 66.7 13.8 +5.7 52.9
Dec 2023 14.2 61.9 23.9 -9.7 45.2
Nov 2023 16.0 67.7 16.3 -0.3 49.9

Backlog of Orders*

ISM®’s Backlog of Orders Index registered 46.3 percent, a 1.6-percentage point increase compared to January’s reading of 44.7 percent, indicating order backlogs contracted for the 17th consecutive month after a 27-month period of expansion. Of the six largest manufacturing industries, only Fabricated Metal Products expanded order backlogs in February. “The index remains in contraction, though at a slightly slower rate in February, as production rates and new order levels continue to have a negative effect on backlogs,” says Fiore.

Of 18 manufacturing industries, the five that reported growth in order backlogs in February are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Paper Products; Primary Metals; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Fabricated Metal Products. The eight industries reporting lower backlogs in February — in the following order — are: Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products.

Backlog of Orders % Reporting % Higher % Same % Lower Net Index
Feb 2024 93 14.9 62.8 22.3 -7.4 46.3
Jan 2024 91 17.5 54.4 28.1 -10.6 44.7
Dec 2023 89 16.7 57.1 26.2 -9.5 45.3
Nov 2023 91 9.3 60.0 30.7 -21.4 39.3

New Export Orders*

ISM®’s New Export Orders Index registered 51.6 percent in February, 6.4 percentage points higher than the January reading of 45.2 percent. This is the index’s highest reading since July 2022 (52.6 percent). “The New Export Orders Index reading indicates that export orders expanded in February after eight consecutive months of contraction. Panelists’ comments supported improvement in order activity from China and the European region,” says Fiore.

The six industries reporting growth in new export orders in February — in the following order — are: Wood Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Machinery. The six industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in February — in the following order — are: Textile Mills; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Chemical Products.

New Export Orders % Reporting % Higher % Same % Lower Net Index
Feb 2024 71 12.0 79.2 8.8 +3.2 51.6
Jan 2024 73 8.4 73.5 18.1 -9.7 45.2
Dec 2023 73 10.2 79.4 10.4 -0.2 49.9
Nov 2023 71 7.7 76.6 15.7 -8.0 46.0

Imports*

ISM®’s Imports Index registered 53 percent in February, an increase of 2.9 percentage points compared to January’s figure of 50.1 percent and its highest level since a reading of 54.4 percent in July 2022. “Imports grew for the second consecutive month in February after contracting for 14 consecutive months. Lunar New Year pre-shipments contributed to the month-over-month increase in import activity. Panelists continued to note rising ocean freight costs and extended trans-Suez lead times as a result of Red Sea disruptions,” says Fiore.

The nine industries reporting an increase in import volumes in February — listed in the following order — are: Wood Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The five industries that reported lower volumes of imports in February are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Primary Metals; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Plastics & Rubber Products.

Imports % Reporting % Higher % Same % Lower Net Index
Feb 2024 83 14.0 77.9 8.1 +5.9 53.0
Jan 2024 83 11.9 76.3 11.8 +0.1 50.1
Dec 2023 82 7.3 78.1 14.6 -7.3 46.4
Nov 2023 83 8.2 76.0 15.8 -7.6 46.2
*The Supplier Deliveries, Customers' Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders and Imports indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.

Buying Policy

The average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures in February was 177 days, an increase of five days compared to January. Average lead time in February for Production Materials was 80 days, a decrease of three days. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies was 43 days, the same figure reported in January.

Percent Reporting

Capital Expenditures Hand-to-Mouth 30 Days 60 Days 90 Days 6 Months 1 Year + Average Days
Feb 2024 14 5 7 14 32 28 177
Jan 2024 16 5 9 13 29 28 172
Dec 2023 15 4 8 16 29 28 174
Nov 2023 14 3 9 14 32 28 178

Percent Reporting

Production Materials Hand-to-Mouth 30 Days 60 Days 90 Days 6 Months 1 Year + Average Days
Feb 2024 9 25 26 25 11 4 80
Jan 2024 8 23 30 24 10 5 83
Dec 2023 6 27 28 25 9 5 82
Nov 2023 8 24 29 26 9 4 79

Percent Reporting

MRO Supplies Hand-to-Mouth 30 Days 60 Days 90 Days 6 Months 1 Year + Average Days
Feb 2024 29 36 19 11 5 0 43
Jan 2024 29 37 16 13 5 0 43
Dec 2023 29 36 18 11 5 1 46
Nov 2023 29 35 21 10 5 0 43

About This Report


DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report’s information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of February 2024.

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation


The Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. The composition of the Manufacturing Business Survey Committee is stratified according to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) and each of the following NAICS-based industries’ contribution to gross domestic product (GDP): Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing (products such as medical equipment and supplies, jewelry, sporting goods, toys and office supplies). The data are weighted based on each industry’s contribution to GDP. According to BEA estimates (the average of the fourth quarter 2022 GDP estimate and the GDP estimates for first, second, and third quarter 2023, as released on December 21, 2023), the six largest manufacturing industries are: Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; and Fabricated Metal Products.

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers’ Inventories, Employment and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction (higher, better and slower for Supplier Deliveries) and the negative economic direction (lower, worse and faster for Supplier Deliveries), and the diffusion index. Responses are raw data and are never changed. The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive).

The resulting single index number for those meeting the criteria for seasonal adjustments (Manufacturing PMI®, New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories) is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The Manufacturing PMI® is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes of five of the indexes with equal weights: New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Production (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted), Supplier Deliveries, and Inventories (seasonally adjusted).

Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. A Manufacturing PMI® reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 42.5 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 42.5 percent is indicative of the extent of the expansion or decline. With some of the indicators within this report, ISM® has indicated the departure point between expansion and decline of comparable government series, as determined by regression analysis. The Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® survey is sent out to Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to report on information for the current month for U.S. operations only. ISM® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM® then compiles the report for release on the first business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

Responses to Buying Policy reflect the percent reporting the current month’s lead time, the approximate weighted number of days ahead for which commitments are made for Capital Expenditures; Production Materials; and Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies, expressed as hand-to-mouth (five days), 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, six months (180 days), a year or more (360 days), and the weighted average number of days. These responses are raw data, never revised, and not seasonally adjusted.

ISM ROB Content


The Institute for Supply Management® (“ISM”) Report On Business® (both Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing) (“ISM ROB”) contains information, text, files, images, video, sounds, musical works, works of authorship, applications, and any other materials or content (collectively, "Content") of ISM ("ISM ROB Content"). ISM ROB Content is protected by copyright, trademark, trade secret, and other laws, and as between you and ISM, ISM owns and retains all rights in the ISM ROB Content. ISM hereby grants you a limited, revocable, nonsublicensable license to access and display on your individual device the ISM ROB Content (excluding any software code) solely for your personal, non-commercial use. The ISM ROB Content shall also contain Content of users and other ISM licensors. Except as provided herein or as explicitly allowed in writing by ISM, you shall not copy, download, stream, capture, reproduce, duplicate, archive, upload, modify, translate, publish, broadcast, transmit, retransmit, distribute, perform, display, sell, or otherwise use any ISM ROB Content.

Except as explicitly and expressly permitted by ISM, you are strictly prohibited from creating works or materials (including but not limited to tables, charts, data streams, time series variables, fonts, icons, link buttons, wallpaper, desktop themes, online postcards, montages, mashups and similar videos, greeting cards, and unlicensed merchandise) that derive from or are based on the ISM ROB Content. This prohibition applies regardless of whether the derivative works or materials are sold, bartered, or given away. You shall not either directly or through the use of any device, software, internet site, web-based service, or other means remove, alter, bypass, avoid, interfere with, or circumvent any copyright, trademark, or other proprietary notices marked on the Content or any digital rights management mechanism, device, or other content protection or access control measure associated with the Content including geo-filtering mechanisms. Without prior written authorization from ISM, you shall not build a business utilizing the Content, whether or not for profit.

You shall not create, recreate, distribute, incorporate in other work, or advertise an index of any portion of the Content unless you receive prior written authorization from ISM. Requests for permission to reproduce or distribute ISM ROB Content can be made by contacting in writing at: ISM Research, Institute for Supply Management, 309 West Elliot Road, Suite 113, Tempe, Arizona 85284-1556, or by emailing kcahill@ismworld.org. Subject: Content Request.

ISM shall not have any liability, duty, or obligation for or relating to the ISM ROB Content or other information contained herein, any errors, inaccuracies, omissions or delays in providing any ISM ROB Content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. In no event shall ISM be liable for any special, incidental, or consequential damages, arising out of the use of the ISM ROB. Report On Business®, PMI®, Manufacturing PMI®, Services PMI®, Hospital PMI®, and NMI® are registered trademarks of Institute for Supply Management®. Institute for Supply Management® and ISM® are registered trademarks of Institute for Supply Management, Inc.

About Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®)


Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) is the first and leading not-for-profit professional supply management organization worldwide. Its community of more than 50,000 in more than 100 countries manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 by practitioners, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM empowers and leads the profession through the ISM® Report On Business®, its highly-regarded certification and training programs, corporate services, events, and assessments. The ISM® Report On Business®, Manufacturing, Services, and Hospital, are three of the most reliable economic indicators available, providing guidance to supply management professionals, economists, analysts, and government and business leaders. For more information, please visit: www.ismworld.org.

The full text version of the Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® is posted on ISM®’s website at www.ismrob.org on the first business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET. The one exception is in January, the report is released on the second business day of the month.

The next Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® featuring March 2024 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Monday, April 1, 2024.

*Unless the New York Stock Exchange is closed.

Please note that you or the organization you represent may not create, recreate, distribute, incorporate in other work, or advertise an index or any portion of the ISM® Report On Business® – Manufacturing (PMI®), Services (PMI®) and Hospital (PMI) content unless you receive prior written authorization from ISM. Requests for permission to reproduce or distribute ISM ROB Content can be made by contacting us in writing at:

ISM Research
Institute for Supply Management

309 W. Elliot Road ,
Suite 113
Tempe, AZ 85284

or by emailing us at (Subject: Content Request)
robadmin@ismworld.org